Foresight Studio
前瞻工作室
1 / 2 / 3 / 5-year wealth foresight
1 / 2 / 3 / 5 年财富前瞻
How wealth is acquired, sourced, owned, and transmitted in the AI era. Baseline September 2026. First public audit September 2027.
AI 时代财富如何获取、来源、拥有与传承。 基线 2026 年 9 月。首次公开审计 2027 年 9 月。
Thesis.
总论。
Wealth shifts from selling scarce hours → owning scarce judgment, distribution, and claims on automated cash flows.
财富从卖稀缺工时 → 拥有稀缺判断力、分发权、以及对自动化现金流的索取权。
Scoring: HIT · PARTIAL · MISS · VOID. Misses stay archived forever.
打分：命中 · 部分命中 · 失误 · 作废。错案永久归档。
Year 1 (~2027) — AI as junior partner
第 1 年（~2027）— AI 当初级合伙人
| ID | Claim | 预测 | Evidence plan | 证据计划 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1-A1 | Solo operators with agent fleets (3–10) outproduce 2024-style small teams | 一人管 3–10 个智能体舰队，产能超过 2024 式小团队 | Public P&Ls, indie surveys, “Agent Ops” titles | 公开损益、独立调查、Agent Ops 职位 |
| Y1-S1 | Owned audiences beat pure model-wrapper apps on repeat revenue | 自有受众在复购收入上击败纯模型套壳应用 | Pricing + retention vs wrapper graveyard | 定价与留存 vs 套壳坟场 |
| Y1-O1 | “Export / backup my AI life OS” products ship | “导出/备份我的 AI 人生系统”类产品上线 | Launches, insurance riders | 产品发布、保险附加条款 |
| Y1-I1 | Mid-class estate checklists include digital keys / AI accounts | 中产遗产清单普遍包含数字密钥 / AI 账号 | Lawyer templates (US/UK/SG/AU) | 律师模板（美/英/新/澳） |
Year 2 (~2028) — Cash-flow from machines
第 2 年（~2028）— 机器现金流
| ID | Claim | 预测 | Evidence plan | 证据计划 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y2-A1 | AI-native SMBs: higher revenue per employee vs 2025 baseline | AI 原生中小企：人均收入高于 2025 基线 | Labor stats / Stripe / indie indexes | 劳动统计 / Stripe / 独立指数 |
| Y2-S1 | Agent marketplaces with real revenue share beyond demos | 智能体市场出现真实分成，不只是演示 | Live GMV / disclosures | 真实 GMV / 披露 |
| Y2-O1 | Contracts split control rights vs cash-flow rights on fine-tunes / memory | 合同拆分微调/记忆的控制权与收益权 | Template libraries | 合同模板库 |
| Y2-I1 | Multi-sig / social recovery normal for tech-native family treasuries | 科技家庭金库普遍使用多签/社交恢复 | Product adoption + estate content | 产品采用 + 遗产内容 |
Year 3 (~2029) — Judgment becomes scarce
第 3 年（~2029）— 判断力成为稀缺
| ID | Claim | 预测 | Evidence plan | 证据计划 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y3-A1 | Wage premium shifts to taste / negotiation / liability-bearing judgment | 薪资溢价转向品味 / 谈判 / 担责判断 | Wage studies, certifications | 薪资研究、认证 |
| Y3-S1 | Generic digital services hollow; winners = infra / local trust+AI / physical+energy+compute | 泛数字服务空心化；赢家=基建/本地信任+AI/实体+能源+算力 | Sector shares | 行业份额 |
| Y3-O1 | Portable reputation / outcome histories used across borders | 可携带声誉/结果履历跨境使用 | Platform features | 平台功能 |
| Y3-I1 | “Family AI policy packs” appear as inheritance objects | “家族 AI 政策包”成为传承对象 | Legal + family OS products | 法律与家族系统产品 |
Year 5 (~2031) — Claims on the automated economy
第 5 年（~2031）— 对自动化经济的索取权
| ID | Claim | 预测 | Evidence plan | 证据计划 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y5-A1 | A household segment’s primary surplus includes slices of automated production | 一部分家庭主要盈余包含自动化生产切片 | Regulated products, surveys | 合规产品、调查 |
| Y5-S1 | Verified usefulness ≫ content spam; data/compute/distribution dominate | 可验证有用 ≫ 内容垃圾；数据/算力/分发主导 | Market structure reports | 市场结构报告 |
| Y5-O1 | Net-worth dashboards list agent fleets & IP as first-class lines | 净资产看板把智能体舰队与 IP 列为正式科目 | Fintech / wealth apps | 金融科技/财富 App |
| Y5-I1 | Multi-rail succession taught as standard literacy | 多轨传承成为标准素养 | Curriculum + legal practice | 课程与法律实务 |
We are not afraid to be wrong. Wrong in public is tuition.
我们不怕错。当众打脸是学费。